Seven Steps the U.S. Can Take to Eliminate Nuclear Weapons
GSI Factsheet
1. DE-ALERT ARSENALS
Most Americans do not know that both the U.S. and Russia maintain a policy requiring that their nuclear arsenals, including more than 6000 strategic warheads in silos and submarines, remain on a Cold War level of hair-trigger alert, ready to launch on the warning of an attack, with only 15 minutes to decide the fate of the earth.
This posture is a recipe for catastrophe. Numerous accidents have often nearly resulted in full-scale exchanges between the U.S. and Russia. One notable recent example, out of more than a thousand: in 1995, the Russians wrongly interpreted the launch of a Norwegian weather rocket as a U.S. ICBM attack, and came within 5 minutes of ordering a full-scale retaliation. Similar mistakes have been made by the U.S. At various times, the warning systems of the U.S. and Russia have mistaken a flock of geese and the rising moon for a nuclear strike.
The U.S. president could order the de-alerting of our nuclear arsenal. Such
an action would very likely result in a reciprocal action by the Russian President. In 1992 President George Bush unilaterally ordered U.S. nuclear bombers to stand down from alert, and President Mikhail Gorbachev reciprocated within a week.
2. REDUCE ARSENALS
The United States has a nuclear arsenal of 10,500 nuclear weapons. The Russians have nearly twice as many, with the vast majority undeployed or on reserve. There are more than 31,000 nuclear weapons in the world. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)-a bilateral process begun in 1991-is now bogged down in the U.S. Congress. It has become cumbersome, slow and dangerous.
Here lies another opportunity for measured, diplomatic unilateral action, as was pointed out by George W. Bush during his campaign for the Presidency. The Russians propose, and are in effect pleading to find a way to lower the numbers of deployed weapons on each side to about 1500 or 1000. That lower number of weapons-still sufficient to destroy civilization as we know it-would remain a formidable deterrent until reliance upon nuclear weapons is ended. The U.S. should accept the Russian offer.
3. AID RUSSIAN DISMANTLING
The Russian economy is in dire straits. The financial strain has taken its toll on the military, and, as the recent sinking of the nuclear submarine Kursk indicates, the Russian nuclear arsenal is in a highly vulnerable condition. The disorder of the Russian military poses a security risk to the United States, especially as structures of command and control weaken, morale declines, early warning equipment deteriorates and rogue and terrorist groups seek to steal or bribe their way to Russian nuclear weapons.
In 1996-7, Senators Sam Nunn and Dick Lugar successfully sponsored legislation to provide financial assistance for the safe dismantling of the Russian weapons marked for retirement by START I. The $400 million appropriated by Congress, however, is inadequate. More funding is necessary and must be provided alongside a reaffirmed U.S. commitment to assist and match Russian disarmament.
4. FISSILE MATERIAL CONTROL
A global inventory of all sources of fissile materials, and a ban on the further production of weapons grade plutonium and highly-enriched uranium, would greatly enhance the security of the United States and the world by making it very difficult for rogue states and terrorist groups to obtain the materials required to produce nuclear weapons. Such a ban must incorporate strong verification and enforcement measures.
5. COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN
The work of previous U.S. presidents from both parties must be completed by securing the ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in the U.S. Senate. The U.S. should then take a leadership role in helping bring the treaty’s worldwide entry into force. Doing so would provide several strategic advantages to the United States, ensure our technological superiority and result in a net gain in national security. If properly managed, our Stockpile Stewardship program (which does not rely on new testing) would enable us to maintain a strong nuclear arsenal during the process of multilateral disarmament. A ratified CTBT would also grant the U.S. access to a global verification system able to detect any nuclear test of militarily significant yields.
6. NO FIRST USE
During the Cold War, the overwhelming conventional superiority of the U.S.S.R. prevented NATO and the United States from pledging not to use nuclear weapons first. It was thought that the only deterrent to a massive Soviet invasion of Europe might be a pre-emptive nuclear strike.
Today, with the United States’ clear nuclear and conventional superiority world-wide and the absence of a monolithic Soviet threat, a pledge of No First Use is one of the vital first steps to nuclear weapon elimination. Such pledges have already been made to non-nuclear powers; the nuclear powers’ pledge not to initiate nuclear strikes against each other would increase stability and discourage accidental launch, facilitate the de-alerting of arsenals and strengthen the global norm that nuclear weapons cannot and will not ever be used again. The other nuclear powers are not likely to make such a pledge unless NATO-guided by the U.S.-does so.
7. TOTAL ELIMINATION
It defies logic to believe that nuclear weapons can exist forever and never again be used, but the question of how to move from low numbers to complete elimination has never been fully investigated and considered by the U.S. government. For it to be seriously entertained in the future, the above, security-enhancing steps must be achieved while the goal of nuclear abolition is consistently articulated. Devoid of the context of elimination, these steps become confusing and it is difficult to mobilize public support for them.
The elimination of nuclear weapons is a simple concept to explain: it is a deeply moral and ethical choice supported by the most prominent religious and spiritual leaders; it is a strategic and security imperative supported by prominent U.S. military leaders; and it is a common sense choice endorsed by prominent civilian leaders, powerful business leaders, and more than 80% of the people of the world.